15 January 2008

The Re-re-reraise: CC's Take

I posted a hand yesterday that I played with Hoy early in the MATH. For those of you too lazy to click, here it is again:

FullTiltPoker Game #4863271790: Mondays at the Hoy (35910897), Table 1 - 15/30 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:07:49 ET - 2008/01/14
Seat 1: csquard (3,125)
Seat 2: pushmonkey72 (3,150)
Seat 3: SirFWALGMan (2,980)
Seat 4: Fuel55 (3,130)
Seat 5: pebble78 (2,940)
Seat 6: hoyazo (2,675)
hoyazo posts the small blind of 15
csquard posts the big blind of 30
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to csquard [7d 2h]
SirFWALGMan: yay 78 is good!
pushmonkey72 folds
SirFWALGMan folds
Fuel55 folds
pebble78 folds
hoyazo has 15 seconds left to act
hoyazo raises to 90
SirFWALGMan: it was s00ted. I had a backdoor flush draw!!
pushmonkey72: da goot
csquard raises to 245
hoyazo raises to 735
csquard has 15 seconds left to act
csquard has requested TIME
Fuel55: rereresqueeze
csquard raises to 3,125, and is all in
hoyazo: gl guys
SirFWALGMan: this is a fun table
hoyazo calls 1,940, and is all in
pushmonkey72: oops
Fuel55: rerereresq
csquard shows [7d 2h]
hoyazo shows [Th Td]
Uncalled bet of 450 returned to csquard
*** FLOP *** [8h Jc 3c]
hoyazo: NICE
*** TURN *** [8h Jc 3c] [8d]
*** RIVER *** [8h Jc 3c 8d] [5c]
csquard shows a pair of Eights
hoyazo shows two pair, Tens and Eights
hoyazo wins the pot (5,350) with two pair, Tens and Eights
SirFWALGMan: lol
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 5,350 | Rake 0
Board: [8h Jc 3c 8d 5c]
Seat 1: csquard (big blind) showed [7d 2h] and lost with a pair of Eights
Seat 2: pushmonkey72 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: SirFWALGMan didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: Fuel55 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: pebble78 (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: hoyazo (small blind) showed [Th Td] and won (5,350) with two pair, Tens and Eights

Jordan asked me to put my two cents in, so what follows is the collective wisdom I have gathered in all my days of poker.

I won't bore you with any actual stats and percentages first of all as I don't have them in my brain. I will definitely go back to some site to figure out odds after the fact, but I won't here as because it wouldn't reflect my decision making. Let me also make a couple statements. I haven't played any tourneys in quite awhile and hardly feel sharp. I have very healthy respect for Fuel at my table, feel Waffles isn't going to get wacko crazy necessarily, and feel Hoy focuses very heavily on tournaments and will be looking to play second and third level good. This really meaning that I'm thinking with the table that he'll be ready to mix it up and make plays on occasion.

This was the 12th hand of the event for us. Hoy had raised three hands in a row earlier, and he made it 90 to go with everyone folding to him in the small blind. I had 72o, and I must tell everyone that I don't play the hammer. I understand it, but I simply don't embrace it nor its power. I read his raise more as a positional, bullying type of raise, just take the pot with any ace kind of raise. I decide to pop him and take it down as I really don't think he is going to call with much out of position. When he raises again, it definitely stops me in my tracks. I just don't see him doing this again with aces or kings, especially with my raise. My thought was that he had the lovely AQ or a little pair and wanted to get it over with right there. I had decided to push but waited for the fifteen second timer to kick in. I do that most of the time when I have a big hand pre-flop when I'm four tabling 6-max. I assumed he could lay down anything but aces, kings, or queens there. I assumed wrong, he was ahead, and he took the pot.

Would I have called with tens? I really think it depends on if I was focused or not more than anything else. I actually think I'm calling with tens only when I'm not focused nor playing well in that spot. I'm sure Hoy had his reasons, but I really don't think he had the odds to call there. I won't go through all of the hands I could have there, but the options are pretty limited. Bayne left a comment that I've played AKs that strongly there, so that is definitely an option where he's ahead. How often am I making this play with that hand vs. aces or kings? I'll let better minds weigh in.

So I actually feel fine with my play at that point with any two cards. Hoy stuck his chips in with the better hand in a place I hope I wouldn't have. I think really the only other qualifier in all of this is if Hoy thought I was just being a total dork and making a pure move. That is possible, to be sure, but I think it is much less possible when I haven't been in the tourneys for so long, probably <5% of the time will I do this with an under pair or junk.

There's all the wisdom I can muster regarding the re-re-reraise. All thoughts are welcome.

8 Comments:

Blogger HighOnPoker said...

Thanks for the additional insight, CC. I like the concept of the Aces bluff (essentially, exploiting the idea that the fourth raise is 'always Aces'). It didn't work here, but I like the general principle. I just wonder if it ever actually works. I agree that only QQ-AA should be calling you there, but sadly that's not how it worked out.

12:30 PM  
Blogger Sean said...

I like the bluff in theory (puts huge pressure since you'll usually have KK or AA here). And I agree, it seems like Hoy's call is kinda bad, but a few things make it less bad.

First, he's close to pot committed. Not completely, but he's getting almost 2:1 on the call.

Second, you took your time on the call which makes you seem weaker. I know taking a long time is a strength tell in ring NL, but in tournaments, it probably is more often a tell for a marginal hand for the spot (AK, 99, AQ, etc).

I think the combination of the factors of the odds he's getting and some percentage of the time he'll have a coinflip makes the call reasonable. The fact that many bloggers play 72o so strongly helps the call too.

I think your move was risky but had a decent percentage of succeeding. I think his call was borderline but very read-dependent. To your credit, you read him for being weak and acted on it. I think if you had insta-pushed he would have a better chance of laying down.

And who knows, maybe he had to go to the bathroom or watch a show and wanted to either double up or get busted?

1:53 PM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

5:38 PM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

5:43 PM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Am I the only person who finds it to be literal gold that Jordan is saying that I can only call with AA-QQ here? This is the same Jordan who commented on both my and LJ's blog that her call in more or less the exact same position in the last Big Game with AQ of all hands was justified and good because of her read? The tournament situations of the two plays are almost uncannily similar, only the AQ is probably a slightly worse hand to call an allin with than TT, and that AQ hand occurred in the opening minutes of a larger buyin tournament, and that tournament (last chance to get into the BBTwo ToC) had a lot more riding on it than a silly little MATH, and that tournament was a super stack tournament, and that tournament was full ring. All of which clearly make any overaggressive allin calls like that in that Big Game worse tournament poker moves than my overaggressive call in the MATH this week. In fact, the only substantive difference between the two plays is that the person making the play in the Big Game case has female anatomy and I have (very large) male anatomy.

If anybody wants to see what Jordan really thinks about making a call like this, go read his commentary on both my and LJ's blog post about the AQ hand, which I have posted below for your enjoyment (ok, I admit it, really mostly for my enjoyment):

Jordan on LJ's blog comments 12/18/07: "LJ, this much is undeniable: You explained the reasons why you made your plays, and all of your reasons are 100% legitimate. I love the way you played that AQ hand."

Jordan on his own blog post 12/19/07:
"However, the CORRECT move here, if all cards were face-up, would be exactly what LJ did. And besides, there is a real benefit from not being scared to go busto. That's how monster stacks are made early on, and it can be a big coup in any 45-200 person tournament."


Now that's what I call cold busted. It will never get old catching someone just being a donkey in public like this, especially when the donkery is based purely on gender bias. And when Jordan posts his silly justification for his blatant inconsistency, he will still be the guy who tried to have it both ways, the guy who tried to get in good with the woman who made move x and then tried to lay into the man who made the nearly identical move x a month later in a nearly identical spot, only not quite as bad. This has really made my day.

Same goes for Waffles btw. One of the biggest defenders of LJ's move with the AQ publicly on the comments in my own blog and in comments on hers, and now here he is saying I made the worst calling station move he's ever seen. Uh huh.

I always try to use blogging to try to help myself and others analyze poker better and help everyone to play better. It's a shame to me every time it is made obvious that some others are just trying to play favorites and not being true to the poker. Just goes to show how much of a large grain of salt you have to take poker blog comments with, even ones that purport to be someone's honest opinion about poker strategy. :(

***************************

Anyways, back to the hand in question. I thought my TT was ahead when I raised with it first, obviously. I'm sure no one has an issue with my initial raise. When you reraised me, I put you on two high cards and I thought my best play with the TT was to rereraise a good amount and take it down right then, which I figured you would lay down to. Hence my not-small sized rereraise to 735 chips, a clear attempt to take this thing down right away and not waste my being dealt TT this early in a fast-moving tournament. Going into this decision was the fact that the MATH is 6-max and thus moves very very fast from the getgo (notice more than half the field was eliminated in just the first hour this week and most weeks since the switch to 6-max).

My decision gets much more interesting once you rerereraised me allin for my last 1940 chips. Once you rerereraised me, at that point I had to figure you were on AK, maybe AQ (many blonkeys play our blonkaments this way every single week whether you realize it or not -- see the LJ hand above and all the support she got for her move lest you have any doubt whatsoever about this assertion), 72, AA, KK or maybe QQ. There really weren't any other hands in the range I put you on at that point.

So, there are 16 ways to make AK or AQ. That is 32 hands that I am roughly a 52% favorite against.

There are 16 ways to make 72. That is 16 hands I am roughly an 80% favorite against. Btw you may think I know you don't play the hammer, but I have no clue about that, I haven't really played many blonkaments with you and I wouldn't take two seconds thinking about that. In any blonkament, the Hammer is always an option when there is a pile of raising and reraising before the flop.

There are 6 ways to make each of AA, KK or QQ. That is 18 hands I am roughly a 20% underdog against.

So, once you had rerereraised me allin, I had to call 1940 to win 5350. That means I was getting 1.75 to 1 to make that final call. This means I had to be 36% to win the hand with my TT.

Looking at the hand ranges I assigned above:

With 32 of your possible hands (AK or AQ), I am 52% favorite.

With 16 of your possible hands (Hammer) I am 80% favorite.

With 18 of your possible hands (AA-QQ) I am 20% favorite.

(32 x.52) + (16 x .80) + (18 x .20) = 16.64 + 12.8 + 3.6 = 33.04. 33.04 divided by 66 total hands = I had 50.06% equity overall in the hand with my TT given the range I had assigned to you.

So, once my 735 chips are already in the pot, I only need to be 36% to win the hand to justify calling off the rest of my 1940 chips after your allin rerereraise. While I won't even try to say that I did this entire detailed calculation in 10 seconds of thought at the table the other night, my math instincts correctly told me that it wasn't even a close call, that I had to call off the rest even if I thought you could easily have AA, KK or QQ. At that point I am looking at roughly a 50% chance to win a hand overall, and I'm getting 1.75 to 1 on my money.

So that's how it all happened. In the end, you have AA-QQ a significant portion of the time there and I am eliminated early 4/5 of those times (hence my comment in the chatbox wishing everyone good luck). This was not one of those times and I was lucky for that, because you most likely would have played any of those three hands this same way.

FWIW even if I put you on just AK, AA, KK or QQ here and left out AQ and the Hammer entirely, you still have 16 ways to make AK and 18 ways to make AA, KK or QQ. So that is still (16 x .52) + (18 x .20) = 8.32 + 3.6 = 11.92 divided by 34 total hands = 35% equity. Even that call is right on the borderline since my pot odds say I need to win the hand 36% of the time. Add in even the slightest possibility that you would play AQ (even just AQs) or the Hammer (or the JackAce, which people play against me all day long in blonkaments) in this way, and again I have pot odds to call at that point. And including everything I included in your range, it was a no-brainer. Not at all a no-brainer that I would be ahead or that I would win the hand, but once my 735 chips were already in the pot and given that I only had 1940 chips remaining, the pot odds were there for me to call off the rest.

As I said, I love seeing the Hammer suck out a big pot even against my own self, so I would have enjoyed seeing this one go the other way. I also admittedly could have played it differently by not rereraising you with my TT, and if this had been, say, a super-stack ring game $75 Big Game tournament that I really wanted to win my way into the BBTwo ToC with for example, I would very likely not have played it quite so aggressively with my rereraise. But once I made that move, I had odds to call down the rest with even a much tighter hand range for you than any blogger plays against me in any blogger tournament.

Hope you enjoyed this Hoy-sized comment to your post, and I hope to see you again soon in the MATH!

5:46 PM  
Blogger CC said...

Hoy, you had me at the re-re-comment!

7:15 PM  
Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Yeah cc sorry 'bout that. I had made one small insignificant error in the pot odds calculation and, knowing how Hater dickheads like to focus on that stuff even when it is fully irrelevant to the point I am trying to make, I didn't want to leave the errors there un-fixed since I had noticed them. Sorry for the clutter.

Hope it explains why I made the moves that I made. I put myself into the shitty situation of having pot odds to call you at the end even though I knew I would be behind a significant portion of the time. Most of these donkeys will never understand my explanation here but I know how you play and you will get it.

7:35 PM  
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