Luck and Poker

A rare weekend post. First, thanks to IGGY for the nice words this week ("...I'm a big fan..."); pretty flattering, so thanks.

I deposited $300 in Hollywood Poker to see if their 1000% bonus is doable. Sat in on one 3/6 table, promptly lost $120 I think never winning a pot. Very slow game, hardly any tables, couldn't figure out how to use PokerTracker with Hollywood (either the hands are on my hard drive or something). I think I would need to play something like 15,000 hands in two months to clear the bonus, so I don't know if it's doable. I'm just not sure.

Traffic drops substantially on weekends (probably down 75% or so), but I'd like to address my thoughts on poker and luck vs. skill. As many great topics start, it started with Jordan's initial post then alot of folks chimed in. I probably have a bit of a different take on the topic of luck vs. skill in poker: Poker is 100% luck.

100% luck--a bit stupid right? Well, first what is luck? dictionary.com defines it as the chance happening of fortunate or unfortunate events. I'd like to focus on the first word, chance. Let's start first with the universal first truth in a poker hand: you receive x number of random cards after a dealer has shuffled. If you're playing holdem, then we're talking two cards. I'll let the statisticians give you the odds of getting any two specific cards, but suffice it to say that for most players we won't have a decision to make probably 50-67% of the time. What I mean by this is a majority of the time, we look at our cards, and we have hands that everyone would deem poor, so we muck. Next, there are 5-10% of the hands that are universal that we will be playing them, so the decision then becomes what to do based on other factors like position, other players actions, chip counts, table image, etc. That leaves 23-45% of the hands where we have to decide if we'll play or not. I understand that this isn't exactly right (e.g., raising in the cutoff with rags), but hopefully you follow.

If luck is chance, then poker starts with 100% chance, meaning 100% luck. It then becomes what we're going to do with that combination of our chance vs. our opponents' chance that determines both our actions, our opponents' actions, and the results. I'll give you a couple of examples of what I mean:

• December, 15/30 at the Bellagio. I'm in the 1s and have 9To (it's folded to me in the CO and I fold), 2s has 77 and raises preflop on the button, 3s calls with 22 in the sb, bb calls with 88. Flop comes 872, turn is 8, river is 7. Independent of the other players, was I lucky? I had a marginal hand that becomes playable in late position with no one entering in front of me. Was I lucky or unlucky to be dealt these cards? Was there skill involved to muck these cards? Independent of everything else, was the 3s lucky to be dealt the smallest pocket pair? Was she lucky to catch bottom set? Was she lucky to catch a full house on the turn? Was the 4s lucky to be dealt the best hand pre-flop? Was he lucky that the board hit everyone so powerfully? Was he unlucky that the 2s had lost the previous hand, thus getting all-in on the capped turn?
• Last night, in a SNG. I'm down to 1245 in chips with the blinds 30/60 (I'm in sb with 99). It's chance that I get a medium pocket pair. UTG, who is horrible, calls, then UTG+1 raises to 150. I reraise to 675, as I decide to take a stand, UTG folds, and the raiser calls. Flop comes Kd9dTc. I go all-in with my last 570 and am called, with an 8c and 3d completing the board. The raiser has KhJh. Was I lucky that the raiser raised out of position with a marginal hand? Was I lucky that he called pre-flop? Was I lucky that he hits top pair? Was I lucky that he calls?
  
• Later in the SNG, I have 2552, blinds are 100/200. I'm dealt QJo, and a solid player with 3352 in middle position limps, I raise to 875, blinds fold, he shoves, and I muck. Was I lucky to be dealt this marginal hand? Was I lucky that he jams?
• $5/10 LHE on Party, I'm in bb with AhKh, UTG raises, CO calls, sb calls, and I call. Flop comes JcTh2h, sb checks, I bet, UTG raises, CO folds, sb calls, and I call. Kc on turn, sb bets, I call, UTG raises, sb re-raises, I call, UTG caps, sb calls, I call. 3d comes on the river, sb checks, I check, UTG checks. sb has KdJd, UTG has TT for the set. Was I lucky to catch big slick in the bb? Was I lucky to see a flop like this?
  
• Later at the same table, I'm dealt AhKh again in the CO, it's folded to me, I raise, and the rest fold to me. Was I lucky?
  

Poker is 100% luck. The skill comes with how we take in all available data possible to bring our quick decision making honed through experience, analytical capability, and further chance. The other major part of skill is our ability to deal with the outcomes that result from chance, either the string of positive outcomes or negative outcomes. When we're riding high, many of us (at least let me start with me) alter our decision making. The luck of who is at the table and their tendency to fold or call you down impacts those outcomes during both the winning and losing streaks. AKs gets called down by underpairs when we're running bad but gets mucked vs. second pair bad kicker when we're running good.

I think in the macro sense, our ability to manage ourselves, our mental outlook, and the consistency of our approach during the extremes of chance is a major key to overall improvement and growth. Our no-nonsense ability to stay within our bankroll allows us to work through the negative extremes of chance.

None of this was thought out too well, so my apologies if it isn't too coherent. The down and dirty version: poker is 100% luck, and our long-term success is tied to the skill we have to deal with this luck, this chance.

Hope everyone is having a good weekend, and I'll see you Monday.