The Price for Fish

After a great day of +$1200, a quick return to $100 NLHE at Party demonstrates a few cardinal rules of play: play within the bankroll so that you can deal with the variance that you want to be there when folks chase. I made my $84 buy-in at the $100 max table. Fluctuated between $100 and $160 by exploiting some sets, etc. Was then knocked cold by two hands in a span of five minutes. First hand: I call $3.50 with the raiser on my right (blinds fold), with a pot of $8.50. I hold AKo, and flop comes AJ9 rainbow. Raiser bets $4, I raise another $8.64, and he calls. Turn comes 8, raiser checks, I bet $25, and again a call (he has $20 left). Q comes on the river, he bets his last twenty, and I'm assuming I'm now beaten with AQ or AJ, only to see KTo after my call.

Second hand I have 98o in the big blind. There is a caller then a raise to $4, the button calls, the small blind and I call, and the first limper folds (so $17 in the pot). Flop comes Q98 with two spades. SB checks, I bet $15, raiser folds, button calls, and the other guy folds (pot is now $47, I have $59.25 left). Turn is 5h, and I go all-in for $59.25. She cold calls with KsJs, then catches 6s on the river to make the flush, saying she had alot of outs. She's 27% to win after the turn, although she said that the two non-spade kings were outs which improved it a bit (if I only have a queen).

A few key learnings from these two hands. The first hand is a much worse play, 17% to win after the flop and 18% after the turn. I'm not quite sure how you keep chasing a gutshot twice (or at least I could never pay the above price to do it). The second hand was at first blush not as bad a play with the flush draw screaming at you as well as the gutshot. Of course, we want players to chase these things, but I think the key learning is that you play at stakes where losing these two hands in a row doesn't deplete your bankroll. Of course, I was alot more fortunate with this than I could have been. I could have been covered by the first guy and had to re-buy. I could have had more money with the second guy than I did, although I had plenty. The real aha is in NLHE, you have to play at stakes or at a buy-in that you're totally willing to lose. I see this differently than limit, which has as a significant advantage the mitigation of risk, the limit of loss when you get chased down. Especially at these lower stakes, in NLHE I specifically play gapped suited connectors and call the $3 raise focused more on the implied odds of the monster, hidden hand rather than the lost bet.

Not too tough a work day, leaving for breakfast at 7:30 and returning to my room at 3:45 this afternoon. All other days will be tough, so I need to enjoy this while I can. I slept eleven hours last night after getting a massage. Not that I'm homophobic, but I insisted on a female masseuse as the one time I've had a guy provide a massage it was a bit creepy. You have to be a bit careful with a request for a massage in Asia as you never know what services may be provided. I almost fell asleep toward the end of the massage, the hot stone massage. Of course, I smelled like oil all night, but I'll take it.

To bed now.

POSTSCRIPT: I can moderate comments but I can't respond to them while I'm here in Shanghai. It is very nice to of course have folks visiting this blog, but when I'm away from home this long, it is especially a treat to read your thoughts and comments (even flames are fine). Thanks for any comments, and keep them coming.