Leak to Fix: Fraidy-Scared River Check

OK, one of my major leaks I guess I knew but I'm admitting: the afraid-of-being-raised-river-check-instead-of-value-betting. It is caused by the scare card during active pots hitting the river: the third suit, the third straight card, the paired board. I normally halt on the river unless I have some big pair, which then gets occasionally cracked by the rivered straight, etc. You guys will probably have much better stats, but this is a blind estimate of what happens when the scare card hits and I bet it:

• Raised by the winner: 10%
• Raised by a losing hand: 5%
• Folded: 35%
• Called by loser: 40%
• Called by winner: 10%

These numbers are just a whack with no data, so I'd like to hear other thoughts on this. So I tried to change this, and here are the hands from a FullTilt $8/16 session (198 hands):

• KTo call from the button vs UTG raiser: K7s4s (called bet), T (raised better), 8s (check/and I check) she had AA
  
• KQo raise from the button vs. limper: Q63 rainbow (check/I bet), 9 (check/I bet), 6 (check/I bet and called by 43
• AQo sb call from UTG raiser: JcQd3c (I check/check), As (I check raise), Ts (I bet/raised) lost to KK (this was more a stupid river bet by me, braindead)
  
• KK raised UTG+1 with three callers: 4c7h5d (I bet with three callers), 8h (I bet with one caller), Qh (I bet and he folded
• AdKc I three-bet from bb with one caller: KhAcTc (I bet/called), 7c (I bet/called), 6c (I bet/called) he had AsQc
• KK raised UTG called by sb: T52 rainbow (he bets/I raise/called), Ad (check/I bet/called), 8c (check/I bet/called), he had JJ
• 99 I three-bet from button -1/called by initial raiser: 838 (she checks/I bet/called), 4 (check/bet/call), J (check/I check); she has AT
• QsJd I call raiser from bb with two other callers: 4c5cJs (I bet/one caller), 4s (I bet/one caller), 3c (I check/he bets/I call), he takes pot with AcQc flush
• K9o I call from sb with two limpers: 2h3h9h (I bet/one caller), 6c (I bet/one caller), 3c (I bet/she raises/I call), I lose to flopped flush with Ah6h (NOTE: she needs to raise the turn, not the river as a flopped set fills up with the paired board).
• AhKh I three-bet from middle position with raiser staying and limpers out: 5c2s2h (check/I bet/called), 3d (check/I bet/called), Js (she bets/I call), she shows bluff with A8o
  

I think the last three hands are probably not illustrative of what I'm talking about, but I wanted to include them as they may provide some breadth to this. I don't think that this will be a simple leak to plug necessarily. Some of this is the emotional hit when you are kicked in the junk, either by the bad read (like the flopped flush), the stupid beat (my raised sb hand that I didn't list when my AA was cracked by the limping button of 5s2s who flopped two-pair), and the caught river hands. Physical things happen: I don't scream too much, but you turn your body, you lean back, your stomach feels a bit queazy. It is not pleasant. You also feel foolish and a bad player, that you couldn't figure out that this person had this, that they check/raised you so sweetly, because they knew I was a donkified, horrible player (and I pay off so many hands that this isn't much of a stretch).

So how do you fix this leak? From the above hands, I had seven opportunities presented (let's throw out the last three) in a 200-hand session (3.5% of hands). Of these:

• Raised by the winner: 1
  
• Raised by a losing hand: 0
• Folded after my bet: 1
  
• Called by loser: 3
• Called by winner: 0
• Fraidy-scared but won: 2
• Fraidy-scared but lost: 0

I missed two bets that probably would have been called, I donkified bet to a K to make a straight once (and he had two), I value bet and won four of seven hands, with three of these being paid off by second best. I need to do more of this, but this looks very promising.

I couldn't get out of Singapore tonight, so I've got 36 hours to kill. I need to transcribe the tapes from my meetings (very tedious work). That would be very good if I could knock out this week's work before I board the plane. All the clothes made it here today. I can't gain any weight ever again so that these clothes will fit; otherwise, I probably need to give my wife my cash bankroll to pay for it. So let's hope I can stay motivated.

I don't railbird on FullTilt much, but this is a classic horrible play by Matusow at a five-handed $25/50 NLHE table with Allen Cunningham, and Dustin Dirksen (an online legend). Hey, I know none of us are pros (except Felicia maybe), but this is a classic donkified play that we've all done (I have for sure), but it doesn't get any uglier to watch than this.

Full Tilt Poker Game #403516540: Table Broadway (6 max) - $25/$50 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:32:55 ET - 2006/01/26 Seat 1: hotntot ($18,769.90) Seat 2: reztes757 ($5,007) Seat 4: AllenCunningham ($4,911.50) Seat 5: Dustin Dirksen ($29,741.60) Seat 6: Mike Matusow ($7,069.50) Dustin Dirksen posts the small blind of $25 Mike Matusow posts the big blind of $50 The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
hotntot folds
reztes757 folds
hotntot: gg and gl everyone
AllenCunningham raises to $150
Dustin Dirksen calls $125
Mike Matusow raises to $600
Dustin Dirksen calls $450
*** FLOP *** [7h Kd 8c]
Dustin Dirksen checks
Mike Matusow checks
*** TURN *** [7h Kd 8c] [Th]
Dustin Dirksen checks
Mike Matusow bets $1,350
Dustin Dirksen calls $1,350
*** RIVER *** [7h Kd 8c Th] [As]
Dustin Dirksen bets $27,791.60, and is all in
Mike Matusow: so sick shoo tme
Mike Matusow has 15 seconds left to act
Mike Matusow calls $5,119.50, and is all in
Uncalled bet of $22,672.10 returned to Dustin Dirksen
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Dustin Dirksen shows [Jd Qs] (a straight, Ace high)
Mike Matusow shows [Kh Ks] (three of a kind, Kings)
Dustin Dirksen wins the pot ($14,287) with a straight, Ace high Mike Matusow is sitting out Mike Matusow: np
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $14,289 | Rake $2
Board: [7h Kd 8c Th As]
Seat 1: hotntot didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: reztes757 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: AllenCunningham (button) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: Dustin Dirksen (small blind) showed [Jd Qs] and won ($14,287) with a straight, Ace high Seat 6: Mike Matusow (big blind) showed [Kh Ks] and lost with three of a kind, Kings